The Myth of Timing the Real Estate Market: What Really Matters

Thursday Jan 09th, 2025

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A common question that comes up in real estate is, When is the best time to buy? Many people worry about timing the market perfectly—hoping to buy low and sell high. But here's the truth: trying to predict the "perfect" moment to enter or exit the market is less important than most think. What really matters in real estate is buying and selling in the same market.

Why Timing the Market Isn’t the Key

When you’re looking to buy or sell a home, the idea of catching the market at the right time might sound appealing. However, it’s essential to understand that real estate moves in cycles. Over time, the market goes through highs and lows, but it increases in value over the long haul.

For first-time buyers, the goal is to obviously get in at the best price possible. But if you are holding onto the property for 5-7 years minimum (ideally 7), the timing becomes less of a concern.

The Importance of Buying and Selling in the Same Market

The real key to success in real estate is buying and selling in the same market, regardless of whether the market is at a peak or a low.

  • Buying at a High and Selling at a High: If the market is experiencing a boom, you’re likely to sell your current home for a good price and be able to transfer that equity to your new property. While the price of your current home is high, so is the price of the home you want to buy. The financial impact is balanced out by the fact that both transactions are happening in the same market.
     
  • Buying at a Low and Selling at a Low: While it might seem counter intuitive, selling at a low point and buying at the same time can actually be beneficial. When the market is down, you might sell your home for less, but you can usually get a larger discount on your next home. This is especially true if you’re upgrading to a more expensive property. For example, a 10% drop in a $2 million home is $200,000, compared to $100,000 on a $1 million home. That means the next step up in housing may be more affordable than you think.

The Bigger Picture: Real Estate Over Time

At the end of the day, the most important thing to remember is that real estate, when held for the long term, increases in value. Trying to time the market is a gamble which may result in waiting too long and a loss. By focusing on buying and selling in the same market, you can navigate market fluctuations with less stress.

If you’re planning to buy or sell and have questions about timing or anything else, feel free to reach out. The real key to success is not waiting for the “perfect time”—it’s knowing that, in real estate, the market will always have its ups and downs. The goal is to buy and sell wisely, and most importantly, in the same cycle.

Next step (1): To learn how to up-size your home, check out my free "Move & Grow Method" guide. 
Next step (2): Follow me on my Instagram @trevorthiessen for more tips on real estate, and how we can help.

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